Markets are accustomed to the historic instability of Italian governments and the upcoming elections are not a major source of concern. Italian governments remain in office on average for less than two years, as has been the case since the Second World War. “As a result, the abrupt end of Mario Draghi's government and the possibility of a more conservative government was simply anticipated by a semester,” comments Hannah Piper, manager of the Schroder ISF Italian Equity fund, which notes that the Btp/Bund spread, the best indicator of investors' fears of Italian politics, “is already pricing the most likely outcome (a right-wing government), being just below the peak recorded in 2018 when Italy presented an anti-euro government coalition (Lega Nord and Movimento 5 stelle).” "In addition, a mechanism of the ECB (Tpi) remains in force and should provide protection as a last resort in the event that Italian BTPs are targeted by international investors. It would be in the interest of any new government to continue to respect the objectives agreed with the European Commission in order to continue receiving EU funding. " The Italian economy is better positioned than at the beginning of the last recession period (2016-2018): the momentum of GDP is stronger than that of Germany and France thanks to the good work of Draghi’s Government, the funds within the Pnrr and the mechanism of the ECB to keep the cost of financing of Italy under control.
|