The European economy continues to show resilience in a challenging global environment. Lower energy prices, easing supply constraints and a strong labor market supported moderate growth in the first quarter of 2023, dispelling fears of a recession. According to the European Commission's new spring forecast, this better-than-expected start to the year raises the growth outlook for the EU economy to 1.0 percent in 2023 (0.8 percent in the winter interim forecast) and 1.7 percent in 2024 (1.6 percent in the winter). The upward revisions for the euro area are of a similar magnitude, with GDP growth now forecast at 1.1 percent and 1.6 percent in 2023 and 2024, respectively. In the wake of persistent core price pressures, inflation has also been revised upward over the winter, to 5.8 percent in 2023 and 2.8 percent in 2024 in the euro area. As for Italy, in 2023-24 our economy is expected to grow by 1.2 percent this year, an improvement of 0.4 percent from the +0.8 percent estimated in winter; in 2024 the forecast is +1.1 percent.
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