The GIMBE Foundation carried out an independent analysis of the Update Note of the Economic and Financial Document 2023 with regard to healthcare spending, both to check consistency between programmatic statements and trend estimates and to inform political confrontation and public debate ahead of the discussion on the fiscal maneuver. Compared to 2022, the Foundation notes, healthcare spending increases by 2.8 percent, in absolute terms by €3,631 million, but decreases from 6.7 percent to 6.6 percent as a percentage of GDP. Against an average annual nominal GDP growth of 3.5 percent, the Note estimates the average growth of healthcare spending at 1.1 percent. The ratio of healthcare spending to GDP plummets from 6.6 percent in 2023 to 6.2 percent in 2024 and 2025, and then again to 6.1 percent in 2026. Compared to 2023, in absolute terms, healthcare spending in 2024 falls to € 132,946 million (-1.3%), then rises again in 2025 to € 136,701 million (+2.8%) and to € 138,972 million (+1.7%) in 2026. As the GIMBE points out, "the negligible increase in healthcare spending of € 4,238 million (+1.1%) in the three-year period 2024-2026 will not be enough to cover even the increase in prices, both because of erosion due to inflation and because the healthcare sector price index is higher than the general consumer price index".
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