Following Moody's assessment of Italy last Friday, the "month of ratings" concluded. This refers to the periodic evaluations of the quality of securities issued by different countries by private companies engaged in this activity. Standard & Poor's began on Oct. 20, followed by DBRS a week later, Fitch on Nov. 10, and Moody's on Nov. 17. These firms' valuations are made up of two parts. The first is the actual rating; the lower the rating, the more probable a bond will not be repaid at maturity. The second is the outlook, which is a judgment (positive, stable, or negative) that indicates the likelihood that the rating will change for the better or worse in the future. What were the four rating agencies' reactions? None of them modified Italy's credit rating, and just one, Moody's, raised the outlook from negative to stable. A sigh of relief for the government. But Moody's was the agency that gave Italy, and still gives, the lowest rating, just one step above that of "junk" bonds, more technically those that do not have the level (investment grade) which, for many international investors, is the minimum to include them in their purchases. In explaining the decision to change the outlook from negative to neutral, Moody's stated that there have been improvements in the health of the banking system, medium- to long-term growth prospects due to progress in the implementation of the NRRP, and the reduction of energy risks "in part thanks to strong government action" in diversifying sources of supply. Nonetheless, the rating remains unchanged: a level above junk bonds.
|