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The global economy continues to grow at a modest pace: the Economic Outlook published today by the OECD forecasts stable global GDP growth of 3.1 percent in 2024, equal to 3.1% in 2023, followed by a slight recovery to 3.2% in 2025, driven mainly by the emerging economies of Asia (India, Indonesia, China). At or near the pole is Europe, with Italy expected to grow by 0.7% in 2024 and 1.2% in 2025, percentages still slightly higher than those of the United Kingdom, Germany, and Japan and in line with those of France. The impact of tight monetary conditions continues to be felt, particularly in housing and credit markets, but global activity is proving relatively resilient, the decline in inflation continues, and private sector confidence is improving. The OECD unemployment rate stood at 4.9% in February, close to its lowest level since 2001. Real incomes are rising in many countries as inflation moderates and trade growth has turned positive. The outlook continues to differ from country to country, with weaker results in many advanced economies, especially Europe, and strong growth in the United States and many emerging market economies. Overall inflation in the OECD is expected to decline gradually from 6.9% in 2023 to 5.0% in 2024 and 3.4% in 2025, helped by tight monetary policy and easing pressures on commodity and energy prices.
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