A restrictive fiscal policy and a weak European context explain Italy’s growth remaining below 1% for the 2024-2026 period. Following a GDP increase of 0.6% in 2024, Svimez anticipates that the national economy will expand by 0.7% in 2025 and 0.9% in 2026. The South is expected to experience a slower rate of growth than the North beginning in 2025. This is the conclusion of the Svimez-Ref Ricerche research 'Where Italian Regions Are Heading: 2024-2026 Regional Forecasts'. According to the study, the slowdown in growth is caused by factors common to the eurozone, such as the restoration of the European Stability Pact's constraints beginning in 2024, the recession in industry due to a drop in demand for durable goods, the crisis in leading sectors such as automotive, the weakness of international trade, and the rise in energy prices. However, specific factors in the Italian context also have an impact: a national public finance framework that focuses on deficit reduction in 2024-25; a significant weight of the automotive sector; and a decisive role of foreign demand, with a strong interdependence with German industry. It should be highlighted, however, that the projections do not account for the significant Trump uncertainty produced by the possibility of imposing tariffs on exports to the US.