For the third time in fifteen years, the spread between Italian BTPs and German Bunds is less than the psychological threshold of 100 basis points. Such a modest differential had not been recorded since September 2021, during the "Draghi era". The drop below 100 points, which touched 99.9 before a slight rebound, is more than just a number. It is a change of viewpoint. It is the market that, following years of skepticism, has come to the realization that Rome is capable of maintaining its accounts, managing its debt, and potentially expanding. A change of course recognized even by those who, until recently, looked at the country with suspicion. Not unexpectedly, the downgrade predicted by S&P Global did not occur. On the contrary, on April 11, the agency boosted Italy's public debt rating to BBB+ with a stable outlook. A significant promotion. And this is based on two pillars: a 3.4% deficit in 2024, which is higher than the Maastricht bar but still declining, and a return to the primary surplus, that is, the amount by which state revenues exceed expenditures net of interest on the debt. It is anticipated that the spread's decrease within the 2025-2026 timeframe could result in a savings of 10.5 billion euros in reduced interest payments.
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