The entry into force of new US tariffs of 15% on European imports, including Italian goods, will have an estimated impact on Italian exports of between €7 and €8 billion. This is what emerges from an updated analysis by the Unimpresa Study Center, which has modeled three reference scenarios: a low one of €7 billion, a medium one of €7.5 billion, and a high one of €8 billion, based on total exports to the United States estimated at between €66 and €70 billion per year. The sectors most exposed in absolute terms remain mechanical engineering and industrial machinery (up to €2 billion in potential tariffs), followed by chemicals and pharmaceuticals (€1.7 billion), fashion and leather goods (€1.1 billion), agri-food (€0.9 billion), transport equipment (€0.8 billion) and high-value consumer goods such as eyewear, furniture and jewelry (€0.6 billion). With the introduction of a uniform rate, the impact will be uneven across sectors, depending on cost structure, positioning in premium segments, and the ability of companies to partially pass on the burden in their price lists or to implement production relocation and geographic diversification strategies.