We live in a period of profound instability. Recent years have accustomed us to turbulence and rapid change, but the digital preview of the Coop 2025 Report - Consumption and Lifestyles of Italians Today and Tomorrow, produced by Ancc-Coop in collaboration with Nomisma and other research institutes, paints a picture of an even more turbulent world, marked by geopolitical tensions and economic imbalances. Conflict increasingly appears to be the norm in international relations: wars and military spending are increasing, reaching $2.7 trillion in 2024 (+17% compared to 2022). According to 78% of polled opinion leaders, tensions will rise further in the next three to five years, and nearly one in every five has worries about the possibility of world conflict. At the same time, the global economic structure is displaying significant fractures. Globalization is slowing, with half of exporting enterprises expecting a decrease in trade flows. Although the United States continues to play a pivotal role, its leadership is being challenged by the rise of China and India. Beijing is increasing at about 5% per year, New Delhi at more than 6%, while the United States is stagnant at 1.9% and Europe at 1%. In this scenario, technology becomes a field of strategic contention. Space and artificial intelligence are the new global battlegrounds. Despite anxieties and doubts, AI is viewed as a disruptive force: it has the potential to enhance global GDP by 20-30% while also profoundly transforming industrial and social paradigms. China is once again ahead of the curve, leading in AI patents and pushing toward an increasingly accessible humanoid robot market. Europe, despite producing a quarter of the world's GDP, is hindered by inadequate governance. However, voters and opinion leaders are progressively demanding further integration: between 75 and 86% of respondents support collective defense, fiscal unity, and the issuing of European debt. And Italy? Following the post-pandemic recovery, the economy appears to be slowing again. Forecasts predict only 0.5% increase in the two-year period 2025-2026, with productivity falling (-1.4% per hour worked), in contrast to the rest of Europe. Employment is increasing—840,000 new jobs—but in low-value-added sectors such as construction, commerce, and tourism. Meanwhile, social progress has stalled: 10% of Italians possess 58% of the wealth, and financial and real estate revenue generates more than labor.
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