France risks becoming the Eurozone's weak link, with rapidly rising debt, an out-of-control primary deficit, and political and societal challenges. On the other hand, Italy has achieved a consistent primary surplus after years of sacrifice and has learned to maintain its finances more efficiently. The comparison between Rome and Paris has shifted: whereas Italy was formerly regarded as Europe's black sheep, it now appears to be a robust economy, with debt substantially supported by domestic savings and exports nearly as high as Japan. According to Marco Fortis (economic, university professor, and vice president of the Edison Foundation), Italy is a unique case in terms of state finances. "The IMF predicts that our debt/GDP ratio will be three points higher in 2030 than it was in 2019, whereas France's will increase by 30 points". Fortis argues that the key issue is the debt structure. In Italy, people and corporations hold more than €4.3 trillion, forming a true " cushion". In contrast, France is strongly reliant on foreign investors, who have long financed its welfare state. They are no longer prepared to support a government that cannot accomplish reforms, even on minor matters such as the elimination of two public holidays.
|