Istat confirmed its March forecasts: Italy’s GDP will grow by 0.7% in 2024, while the deficit remains at -3.4%. Public debt was slightly revised down from 135.3% to 134.9%. The revised economic reports reveal that GDP volume expanded by 1% in 2023, an upward revision of 0.3% from prior projections. In absolute terms, GDP at market prices reached €2,199 billion in 2024, up more than €7 billion over the March projection, while the adjustment for 2023 was €11 billion. On the domestic demand front, household spending increased by 0.5% (from 0.4%), investment remained unchanged at 0.5%, while exports showed no growth (compared to 0.4% growth reported in March). The primary factor driving GDP growth was consumption, with foreign trade (to a lesser extent) contributing. On the supply side, value added increased in agriculture (+2.0%), construction (+1.1%), and services (+0.8%), while industry remained relatively unchanged. In a statement, the Ministry of Economy expressed "satisfaction" with Istat's increased estimate of 2023 growth from 0.7% to 1%. However, there is a less encouraging figure: the tax burden in 2024 rises to 42.5%, compared to 41.2% in 2023, due to tax and contribution revenues increasing by 5.8%, more rapidly than nominal GDP (+2.7%). This level brings Italy back to the values that had been recorded during the 2020-2021 period.
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