Monitoring the number of low-magnitude earthquakes against larger ones could assist improve volcanic eruption predictions. Could predicting eruptions months in advance soon be possible? Research is moving forward, with Italy leading the way with a team of researchers from the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV). The article "Earthquake frequency-magnitude distribution at Mount Etna sheds light on magma ascent in the volcano's plumbing system" was published in the journal "Science Advances". The study shows how studying the relationship between the number of low- and high-magnitude earthquakes can enhance volcanic eruption forecasting. Active volcanoes in densely populated areas are currently monitored using geological observations, as well as geophysical and geochemical data, which provide information on magma movements in the middle and superficial parts of the Earth's crust, whereas the phases of deep-seated recharge are poorly understood. These data also provide information about volcanic activity, which is often limited to the short period. By analyzing twenty years of seismic activity (2005–2024) recorded in the Etna region, the researchers managed to distinguish the different stages of magma ascent—from recharge in the deep crust (up to about 30 km below sea level), to transfer and accumulation at intermediate depths, up to its rise toward the surface.
|