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When banks turn off their taps, criminals open their wallets.There is a direct relationship between credit tightening and the risk of mafia infiltration in Italian businesses. According to a Unimpresa Research Center study based on data from the Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) and the Bank of Italy, from 2001 to 2020, 61,186 companies, or 2.6% of the total, were involved in suspicious transactions linked to individuals under investigation or convicted of mafia-related crimes. A downgrade of the credit rating to “substandard” entails, on average, a 7% annual reduction in credit, which can exceed 30% over five years. In this phase, the probability of infiltration increases by about 0.1 percentage points, equivalent to a 5% rise compared to the average. This phenomenon is not limited to the South; in absolute terms, it is more prevalent in Milan, Rome, and Naples, where competition for access to funds is higher. Real estate and construction are the most vulnerable industries, with risks up to ten points greater than normal. Infiltrated businesses tend to live longer, but they remain "zombies" fueled by illicit finance, with stagnating revenues and falling employment. The risk grows in locations where bank credit is the principal source of funding and legal alternatives—funds, venture capital, and governmental guarantees—are limited.
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