The European Commission has lowered its expectations for Italy’s economy, projecting weaker growth than previously anticipated. In its autumn forecast, Brussels now sees Italy’s GDP rising 0.4% in 2025, down from the 0.7% estimated in the spring. Growth is expected to reach 0.8% in 2026 and 0.9% in 2027, making Italy the only EU country projected to remain below the 1% mark across all three years.

The outlook for the wider Eurozone is more positive. The Commission expects the bloc to expand by 1.3% in 2025, above the 0.9% forecast earlier in the year, before easing to 1.2% in 2026 and rising again to 1.4% in 2027. For the EU as a whole, growth is projected at 1.4% in both 2025 and 2026, and 1.5% the following year.

On public finances, Brussels broadly confirms the Italian government’s expectations. The deficit is forecast to fall to 3% in 2025, then to 2.8% in 2026 and 2.6% in 2027, levels compatible with exiting the excessive-deficit procedure.

The debt picture remains challenging. The debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach 136.4% in 2025, increase to 137.9% in 2026 and ease slightly to 137.2% in 2027. By then, Italy will be one of only four EU countries with debt above 100% of GDP, alongside Greece (138%), France (120%) and Belgium (112.2%).

Twelve member states are expected to exceed the 3% deficit threshold in 2027, including Germany at 3.8%, while Poland, Belgium and Romania are forecast to record the highest levels.