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Despite uncertainties pertaining to the global macroeconomic environment, Italy's public finances remain robust, and no significant concerns regarding their medium-term sustainability arise. This is based on the Ministry of Economy and Finance's quarterly issuance program for the first quarter of 2026. The document affirms the public finance projections issued in the autumn, projecting a decrease in the deficit to approximately 3% of GDP by 2025, with an anticipated further decline in 2026. Concerning debt, the debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to persist in its upward trajectory until 2026, primarily attributable to the cash influence of tax credits associated with construction incentives and heightened interest expenses. According to the Ministry of Economy and Finance, however, the trend should reverse starting from 2027, with a return to a gradual reduction path.
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