The Bank of Italy has published its latest macroeconomic projections for the 2025–2028 period. According to the estimates, GDP is expected to grow by 0.6% in 2025 and 2026, rising to 0.8% in 2027 and 0.9% in 2028.
Economic growth is driven mainly by household consumption, supported by rising real disposable income, and by investment linked to measures under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan. Exports are expected to slow in 2025–26 due to tighter global trade policies, before aligning again with foreign demand.
Inflation is projected at 1.7% in 2025, easing to 1.4% in 2026, before rising again toward 2% by 2028, partly due to the introduction of the EU’s new emissions trading system.