According to Confcommercio's most recent data, the Italian economy is exhibiting clear signs of improvement. Real consumption indicates a notable reversal of the trend in the latter half of 2025. The most significant change is in the climate of confidence. Starting in October-November, households' distrust has decreased, while their propensity to consume has increased. Since September, businesses have expanded month after month for four consecutive months, up about 3% from July; families' inclination to consume climbed by 1.7% in December compared to November. Compared to 2024, spending intentions have resumed growth, surpassing both 2024 and early 2025 levels. Additionally, Black Friday generated €4.9 billion in spending, representing a 19.5% increase. Christmas expenditure increased by 2.8% per household, while Italian travel during the Immaculate Conception holiday weekend increased by 4.9%. Tourism continues to make a beneficial impact, with arrivals up 1.6% from October to November. In the fourth quarter, strong domestic demand (+0.5% year on year), which accelerated in November (+0.6%) and particularly in December (+1%), considerably contributed to GDP growth. According to Confcommercio forecasts, GDP will expand by 0.5% in January 2026 compared to December and 1.2% year on year. The estimate for 2026 remains relatively optimistic (+0.9%), but is heavily dependent on the evolution of consumption.