The year 2028 is expected to mark a critical point for Italy’s healthcare system, with a record average of 217 patients per doctor. This is according to the Pletora Medica analysis by Gapmed, an international provider of healthcare staffing and technology solutions.

Despite steady growth that should lead to a 50.5% increase in active doctors by 2040 compared to 2025, the study disputes predictions of a looming surplus of medical professionals, some estimates had warned of up to 60,000 unemployed doctors by 2032. Gapmed’s data suggest a more balanced outlook.

However, the report cautions that higher numbers alone will not ensure coverage in underserved areas or less attractive specialties, underlining the need for targeted workforce planning.

One of the most striking trends concerns age. Italy’s medical workforce is expected to become significantly younger: while today half of Italian doctors are over 46, by 2036 half will be aged between 25 and 35. Emigration, often cited as a major issue, appears limited, only 0.14% of Italian doctors work abroad.

Still, Italy struggles to attract foreign professionals from high-income countries due to comparatively low wages, while drawing doctors mainly from countries with lower salary levels, such as Romania, Bulgaria and Spain.

The study also highlights the transformative role of technology. Artificial intelligence, advanced diagnostics and digital workforce-management platforms could dramatically increase doctors’ productivity by reducing time spent on low-value tasks.

“In the next 15 years, technology will be decisive for clinical productivity,” says Giacomo Baldi, anaesthetist and founder of Gapmed. “If innovation were to triple a doctor’s operational capacity, 500,000 physicians could effectively deliver the work of more than 1.5 million.”

The real challenge, then, is not just how many doctors Italy will have, but how profoundly technology will reshape the way they work.