What risks does the Middle East situation offer for Italy? Energy supplies provide the most urgent threat. The Strait of Hormuz has been closed since yesterday in reaction to the US and Israeli attacks. The 54-kilometer route transports 30% of the world's oil and 25% of its liquefied natural gas. Brent crude rose more than 13 percentage points in a matter of hours, reaching about $82 per barrel. This is a direct blow to Italy, as Qatar is the country's second-largest LNG supplier, accounting for 33.6% of total LNG imports, and all of that gas travels through Hormuz. A blockade of the Strait decreases global oil and LNG supply, raising energy prices and having a substantial recessionary impact. On a practical level, diesel and gasoline costs could climb by 10-15 cents per liter, while gas prices could jump by 20%, from around €35 to €42 per megawatt hour. Even "Made in Italy" is at risk. According to Confartigiano Imprese, Italian companies sell around €27.9 billion in manufactured goods to the Middle East, which accounts for 4.6% of total manufacturing exports. The most at risk sectors are machinery, jewelry, furniture, and eyeglasses. Rising energy costs could have a rapid impact on ultimate consumer pricing. According to Unimpresa, increased energy prices might result in an increase in inflation of 0.3% to 0.5%, directly affecting Italian families' purchasing power. The Bollette Decree's measures, which were enacted in February 2026, risk being undone in a matter of weeks if the global shock consolidates. Then there are military and security threats. This is a topic that is frequently overlooked in public debate. Italy will not go to war with Iran—Defense Minister Crosetto has stated that it is constitutionally impossible and there is no political will. The greatest risks are potential attacks on US bases in Italy. There are roughly 12,000 US troops stationed in Italy, mostly in Aviano, Sigonella, Camp Darby, Vicenza, Gaeta, and Naples, and these bases might be symbolic targets. Then there's the issue of Italian soldiers abroad: about 1,100 are stationed in Iraq and Kuwait, another 1,100 are part of the UNIFIL mission in Lebanon, and the destroyer Andrea Doria is part of the European mission against missiles and drones in Yemen, protecting merchant shipping. One long-term risk that is sometimes disregarded is public spending. The NATO agreement, which was signed in The Hague in June 2025, mandates that member countries increase military expenditure to 5% of GDP by 2035. For Italy, which is already burdened by exceptionally high public debt, this means deciding between cutting other spending items or increasing debt—with the possibility of widening the spread on government bonds.