Rising fuel and energy prices following the escalation of the conflict involving Iran could result in an additional €14 billion annual burden for Italian households.
According to estimates by Confesercenti, developed together with Confesercenti Innova Energia Ambiente, families would spend an extra €6.9 billion on fuel and €7.1 billion on energy bills if no corrective measures are introduced.
At the same time, the government would see increased VAT revenue of roughly €1.9 billion - including €1.2 billion from fuel sales and €700 million from energy bills.
The price surge would directly affect two unavoidable categories of household spending, reducing the purchasing power of families and businesses while diverting resources away from consumption and investment. As a result, the share of household budgets devoted to fuel and utilities is expected to rise from 7.4% in 2025 to 8.4% in 2026.
Businesses are already feeling the impact. Electricity costs are projected to increase by €1,282 per year for a restaurant consuming 50,000 kWh, €770 for a hotel using 30,000 kWh, and €3,026 for a supermarket with annual consumption of 111,000 kWh.
Gas costs would also rise, adding approximately €630 per year for a restaurant consuming 6,228 cubic meters and €800 for a hotel with 8,803 cubic meters of annual consumption.
The ripple effects would extend to the broader economy. Inflation could climb from a baseline of 1.8% to 2.5%, while real consumption is expected to fall by €3.9 billion. Economic growth could slow from 0.8% to 0.5%, and the country’s GDP could suffer a negative impact estimated at €5.5 billion, reducing projected growth from 0.7% to 0.4%.