The European Commission has revised downward its economic growth forecasts for Italy, predicting GDP growth of just 0.5% in 2026, compared with the 0.8% forecast released last autumn. Growth expectations for 2027 were also reduced, from 0.8% to 0.6%.
According to Brussels, the downgrade is largely driven by a new energy shock linked to the conflict in the Middle East, which is weighing on household consumption and business confidence.
The Commission also highlighted the continued erosion of purchasing power among Italian families, a factor that is slowing domestic demand. At the same time, net exports are expected to continue exerting a negative effect on economic growth.
A moderate recovery is projected for 2027, supported by a gradual normalization of energy prices and an improvement in global trade conditions. Nevertheless, the outlook remains fragile and heavily dependent on geopolitical developments and energy market stability.