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Italy is accumulating debt without realizing it, and it is a consequence of climate change. According to a Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change report conducted with Deloitte, without effective adaptation plans, Italy's GDP could fall by up to 6 percentage points by 2050 compared to a scenario without climate harm. The study is the first to quantify the impact of climate risk on the country's public finances. The mechanism is insidious because it is indirect: slower growth immediately raises the debt-to-GDP ratio, reduces available fiscal space, and complicates managing debt sustainability in the medium and long term. In practice, global warming has an impact that extends beyond factories and fields; it creates an invisible spread that increases the risk of refinancing public debt by twofold. As the study's author, Massimo Tavoni, points out, climate risk is "a sovereign risk". The costs, which are currently around 0.5% of GDP, could rise to 7–8% by the end of the century. Infrastructure, which is becoming more susceptible to hydrogeological instability, and sectors that depend on moderate climates, such as agriculture and tourism, will bear the brunt of the costs caused by heatwaves, desertification, and increasingly irregular rainfall. The findings reinforce the urgency of fully embracing the sustainable development path set out in the European Green Deal.
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